[Mohoender]

In the Caucasus, the Soviets, receiving increasing numbers of fresh troops by early spring renew their counter-insurgency operation against the Chechens. Again it is bloody and early reports even point out an unprecedented level of Russian cruelties. Nevertheless, it meets with tremendous success and most resistence is silenced within three weeks. Chechens paramilitary groups have been destroyed and those who surrender are sent to Siberia while survivors cross the border into Georgia. As a result, on March 5, Moscow takes that opportunity to declare war over that small country and invade it. Then, a blitzkrieg offensive storms it and the country is on its knees in just over a week. While air and naval action clears the Skys and the Black Sea, the Georgian army is overrun and surrenders after tremendous losses.

In Eastern Europe, NATO launches a major offensive and progress into Belarus, with Minsk getting in artillery range by early April. However, they fail to cut the sealane supplying Kaliningrad and Soviet troops there put up a spirited fight, remaining a serious thorn on NATO’s side. Then, with the coming of summer, the NATO offensive gains momentum and by May 17, western forces are facing an all-out counter-attack by the Soviet Army which takes control of Latvia and Lithuania without warning. Within a week the Soviets advance in North-Eastern Poland as western forces begin to fall back. The retreat is successfull but has forced the allied command to make some hard choices taking several units out of the southern front. Then, the Czech Republic, which has fought alone for months, sees an oportunity to brake the stalemate and launches its own offensive braking NATO’s front in mid-June. Finally, with the coming of the fall season, Soviet and Czech advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-German frontier while Warsaw is surrounded and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.

In Romania, the government had issued a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. Hungary protests the mistreatment of these people and, when the police shoots and kills a man crossing the border with Hungary, suspends diplomatic relations. Romania claims he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces but, three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. Police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what available troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests again, is ignored, and then declares war. The conflict remains local, however, as the fresh hungarian troops easily dominate the weak forces still available to Romania. Soon, Bucharest realizes that it doesn’t have enough forces to face this new threat, a cease fire is signed within two weeks and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers.

As this is settled, the fronts in Romania and Ukraine enter a period of attritional warfare. This is short lived, however, and as spring turn to summer, more Soviet divisions, largely legmobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, enter the lines. The Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the ill trained Russian recruits but the weight of superior manpower begins to be felt. Finally, with NATO retreating in Poland and the Soviets dominating air and waters around the Black Sea, Bucharest and Ploesti fall on August 3 while the Ukrainian Army had lost control over 80% of its territory. Romania and Ukraine, isolated and exhausted, see no choice but to surrender. Neverhteless, several units refuse to obey and form the core of a strong guerilla. Whatever, as this front collapses more Soviet units are freed and are soon redirected toward other fronts.

This stunning victory also allows Bulgarian and Serbian forces to comit fully to the Balkan front where, by early fall, pressure on the Bosnian, Croatian and Greek Armies has seriously built up. Then, as difficulties increase, Athens and NATO blame Turkey for their lack of success while Anti-Turkish demonstrations are held all over Europe and even more so within Germany. There, hundreds are killed while thousands more are sent to internment camps despite several calls for moderations by what is left of the international community and even from NATO members. Soon, the neutral posture of Padania is equally critisized and, on November 10, a number of citizens from that country are also arrested in Munich and sent to these same camps as Ravenna protests. Two weeks later, a defense pact is signed between Turkey and Padania. Finally, on December 1, the Cypriot National Guard fires at several positions held by the Turks and Greece intervene almost immediately, sending troops and supplies. In addition, as fighting builds up between Athens and Ankara, Armenia sides with the Greek, attacks in Eastern Turkey and supplies weapons to the Kurds. Then, the Greek and Turkish navies hammer each other with significant losses but, at last, the Turks come up on top. Then, Padania supports Ankara when it declares the Aegean Sea to be closed to International shipping and, while NATO has not shown any intention to get involved, promises to intervene on Turkey’s side if it tries to tip the balance in favor of Greece.

Further north, by late spring, NATO’s Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. However, these vessels remain out of reach and NATO, now forced to fall back on all fronts, design a plan that must provide them with quick victory. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk. subjecting Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments. This is to be carried out simultaneously with a counter-offensive in Poland and on July 7 the ground operation is launched while the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory but instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and remnants of the Northern Fleet supported by what shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid July, two major naval fleets in the world are being shattered and fighting in the Great North peters out. Progressively, Soviet units are leaving to be redeployed to Belarus.

Altough this is not a real defeat, the loss of three more aircraft carrier is a serious blow to US citizens overconfidence in their navy. This combined to a news reporting that Shiite Iraq and Iran now ban oil exports to the West triggers a wind of panic among US population. Then, the Pentagone remains certain that a second front is needed, sees an oportunity in this and claims to have further evidences showing that the Iranian Mullahs are about to side with the Shanghai Pact and invade Saudi Arabia. Despite strong denial by both Iran and Iraq, a coalition is formed including France, UK, US and eight Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE). On September 2, the offensive is launched as Iraquian Sunni joins the battle. As the battle is raging in the suburbs of Baghdad, Syria gets involved and launches its own offensive in Northern Iraq. However, its troops are almost stopped on the border while US High command, despite its already heavy engagement in Europe, sends more troops and lands two Army Corps at Bandar Abbas and Bender Bushehr. Teheran is now aware that it needs more help and Mullahs effectively legalise the Tudeh (Iranian Communist Party). Soon after, supplies comes in from the Soviet Union as units from Caucasus and Central Asia enter the region.

In the meantime, in Lebanon, after Colonel Aql Hashem assassination (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Israel sends more units to the area. It also sends more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which expends fast to reach 5000 fighters. As a result, Hezbollah increases its attacks and rockets are soon hitting northern Israel daily but, finally, Tsahal moves first. On August 15, after a series of artillery bombardement and cross border airstrikes, the Israelis launch an attack that initially take the Lebanese by surprise but Hezbollah recovers quickly, sends more fighters to the front line and heavy fighting takes place in Southern Lebanon where Shia militias relie on an inovative type of fighting, using the best Soviet RPGs in massive attacks. Tsahal is losing tanks faster than usual and is stopped on the Litani River when the Palestinian Intifada turns to open warfare. Soon, seeing an oportunity to regain the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian Army launches its own offensive.

Israel, however, has been prepared for such an eventuality and the timely arrival of Israeli airborne troops deprive the Syrians of victory. Already engaged in Iraq, the Syrian Army has to fall back and Damascus now comes under israeli gun range. Moreover, operations in the Gaza Strip and Cisjordania are expended and, by early October, result in heavy civilian casualties among Palestinians. When more reports of Tsahal exactions comes in, Amman plead for Washington to put pressure on Tel-Aviv but it is refused and the King of Jordania withdraws from the coalition, sending troops into Cisjordania on November 1. Israel is taken by surprise and its forces are taking some really heavy losses while complete disaster is only avoided by emergency levees. Equally stunned by some of the reports, Oman and UAE declare neutrality and suspend oil exportations to the West while Algeria and Libya do the same, claiming support to Iran, Iraq and Syria.

As the conflict with Israel develops in parallel to the war between the coalition and Iran, the allies are progressing North, taking Basrah and Nasiriyah on November 15 (Iraq), seizing Ahvaz and Shiraz on November 16 (Iran) and threatening Kerman by November 19. This move stops when more Soviet troops enter the line two days later but Moscow fears that this won’t be enough. Therefore, on November 29, the Soviets attempt to land in Northern Japan but the operation is short lived and the invading force is repelled four days later. However, this move has revealed the importance of the threat to all countries in the Pacific area and a new defensive treaty is signed on December 31 between five countries (US, UK, Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan). Going by the title of Treaty on Asian Cooperation and Security (TACS) it states that all members assume an obligation to assist each other in case of armed attack.

Also in Asia, tensions continue to grow between India and Pakistan. Following India's move, Pakistan responds by moving large numbers of its troops from the border with Afghanistan to the Indian border. By January, both countries have moved short range ballistic missiles closer to each other's border, and mortar and artillery fire are reported in Kashmir. Moreover, India has mobilized around 500,000 troops and three armored divisions on the Pakistani border concentrated along the Line of Control in Kashmir. Pakistan responds similarly, deploying around 300,000 troops to that region.For months, the situation remains uncertain but tensions escalates dramatically on May 14 when three gunmen kill 34 people in an army camp near Jammu, most of them the wives and children of Hindu and Sikh soldiers serving in Kashmir. Then, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and his cabinet grants the Army permission to attack Pakistani military targets and on May 18, India expels Pakistan’s ambassador. On May 20, Indian soldiers have entered Pakistan and progress as more troops are sent to the front.

By May 24, Gilgit is taken to the North, some Indian units are already closing on the Indus and heavy fighting takes place around Islamabad. On June 7, Islamabad has been heavily shelled, Multan and Bahâwalpur have fallen, Hyderâbâd is threaten and the sealanes to Pakistan have been cut after a short naval campain that sees the defeat of the Pakistani fleet. On June 12, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf realizes that its armies could be defeated any moment and orders limited nuclear strikes on Indian’s rear guards and western cites. The next day at sunrise, three Indian cities (Bikaner, Jodhpur and Srinagar) are hit and destroy by MRBM while Pakistani airforce conducts half a dozen nuclear attacks on Indian rear troop concentrations. Now drawn into a nuclear conflict, India responds immediately and strikes but concentrates on Pakistan Army, avoiding to target the civilian population. It’s only two days later, when a second Pakistani strike is conducted at more Indian cities (Chandigarh, Jaipur, Kândla and Simla), that New Delhi crosses the line and fire its own nukes at Pakistan cities. After that, the limited local exchange continues for three days to end with the full collapses of Pakistan facing widespread unrest, dissolution of legal structures and revolting military units now turning on each other. Meanwhile, badly bloodied Indian units withdraw in a hurry to help maintain order in the devastated western regions of India. Then, while it avoids the general chaos now striking Pakistan, India is no longer capable of supplying its population and central rule collapses as various regions declare independence.

The world is stunned as it faces its first true nuclear exchange and while the ongoing European conflict rages and expends, World trade cease to benefit from the war and contracts as it had never before. The Dow Jones had regained some color during the first six months of 2002, but it crashes on June 15 and loses almost 80% in a single week to end at 1273 points, a level comparing to that of the mid-1980’s. International finance immediately collapses, stock exchanges are suspended everywhere and exchange rates between currencies are no longer recognized as the many countries still remaining outside of the conflicts only accept to trade in diamond, gold or good with a recognized strategic value. International trade has changed almost overnight, the level of exchanges drops and commodities shortages are known worldwide (even in countries still at peace) by early fall.

In Africa, all the wealth generated last year disapear and several countries can no longer import or export anything. Famines are added to fast spreading sicknesses and to a new increase in war intensity. New conflicts (Civil war in Zimbabwe, ethnic violance in Kenya, Ivorian civil war, Nigerian religious conflict and Touareg rebellion) are added to an already long list of fightings, wars that had ended sometime for years are revived (Agacher Strip war between Burkina Faso and Mali, Caprivi conflict in Namibia, Guinea-Bissau Civil War, Mauritania–Senegal Border War, Mozambican civil war and Republic of the Congo Civil War), existing wars continue to spread and expend now contaminating neighboring regions and, by years end, human casualties over the continent are already reaching apocaliptic levels. Only a dozen countries (Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo and Tunisia) remain at peace and among them the most notable is certainly South Africa. When Apartheid had been reinstated, civil unrest had grown and the country had slowly slipped into a civil war that was won by Pretoria in 2000. Still civil unrest remained a relaity until last year when the large amount of wealth generated resulted in a fair increase in the standards of living for the white minority but also for the blacks and coloured. Now the country remains one of the few to maintain a significant level of trade, generating even more wealth, it has formed a political alliance with Botswana and uses Walvis Bay (Namibia) to back the growing Caprivi insurgency.

Similar effects strike Latin America but the continent is better prepared to face the crisis and no country officially collapses. Nevertheless, insurgencies in the Andes continue and Peru loses control over half of its territory. The situation is even worse in Colombia where, despite what appears, the government fall to the Cartels. Meanwhile, Hugo Chavez establishes the Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA), a cooperation organization based on the idea of social, political, and economic integration between countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Soon, membership grows to reach nine countries: Antigua & Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Grenada, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent & Grenadines and Venezuela.

Into Central America, the Mexican government fall to be replaced by a coalition made of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). Obviously this generates distrust from the US administration but that is reduced when, the new Mexican government suspend oil exportations to all countries but the USA. Elsewhere in Central America, insurgencies are kept at bay but standards of living drop almost as much as in Africa and famines are only avoided through a rapid conversion of the highly productive local agriculture. Panama is the sole exception as the world situation pushes Washington to increase its military presence on the Panama Canal.

Further south, the major Latin Amlerican countries also organize themselves and MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) evolves to integrate a defensive component. As soon as this occurs, troops from all member states are sent to Brazil which has been facing a general uprising within its major Favelas for months in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo but also in eight other cities (Belem, B. Horizonte, Campinas, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Guarulhos, Osasco and Salvador. Chile, however, closes its border, issues a partial mobilization orders and suspends the democratic government it had established in the late 1980’s.