[headquarters]

Mo - I just considered something. Israel would not allow any ships to reach Gaza ( It sees the ocean outside Gaza a its territorial waters). The Turkish Naval ships couldnt enter this zone without providing a casus belli by the manouver alone. ( Meaning - not yielding to Israeli instructions once entering these waters would legally give the Israelis justification to start the ladder of ROE escalation.) On the othr hand - Turkish ships - were they to stop outside the Israeli jurisidiction could find themselves in a situation were their compatriots were reporting danger to life and health of crews and passengers due to Israeli actions to stop the convoy. Legal justification to to fire on the Israeli in defence of the lives of their countrymen could be construed.

But all in all - it would be a war of posturing and symbolic victories. Neither country can efficiently oust the enemy regime, and invasion is out of teh question. Also Israel will never lose a war without taking its enemy down with it - the Israelis have enough nukes to make the desert twice as barren

Originally Posted by Mohoender

I have lightly followed that over the past weeks and as much as I don't support either side (having insufficient informations and considering UN ruling to be valid), I find it interesting in relation to T2K. By the way, this is theory only so don't jump to a needless defense of Israel, I'm not accusing of anything. Lets aside the political aspect and focus on the diplomatic-military scenario.

Both countries although not at war, have drifted apart seriously and Ankara obviously considers the situation to be a Casus-Belli. The Turkish government already took different diplomatic measures and now threatens to escort turkish relief ships to Gaza with Turkish Navy ships (probably because Turkey has become an influencial player over the region and because it might desire to strengthen its position).

Turkey being a member of NATO and an ally, I see a positive point to this. If they so, they will probably closely monitor what is in the relief ships and ensure the world that whatever goes through to Gaza is indeed relief materials. I'm also convinced that Israel and Turkey can find a common ground but we'll see. Still when politicians are involved, stupidity is skyrocketing.

Then, the downside comes if things go sour. Insteed of finding some common grounds, both countries remain on their respective position and there are a number of small incidents over the next weeks while more relief ships reach Gaza. Then, acting as it had been trained to do, an Israeli captain goes over its orders and, in a more important incident, damages one of the Turkish ships, killing a number of sailors. Within days, the two countries are at war and Ankara engages in a full scale naval offensive against Israel. Losses, especially in the air and at sea are important for both sides. Several Turkish ships are seriouly damaged while they lose a fairly high number of pilot. Soon, despite air superiority but with the bulk of its navy sunk or having suffered serious damage, Tel Aviv can no longer maintained Gaza's blocus. Increasingly worried for its security, Israel launches a handfull of Jericho missiles (carrying high explosive warheads) at Turkey, hopping for Ankara to back down.

Ankara, however, claiming that it had been attacked in the first place while his ships were on peaceful escort missions and that it is now targeted by strategic weapons of mass-destruction calls on its NATO allies. While the political leadership of NATO (including US) debate the oportunity of intervention...

Ok, I don't think it would bring us to war. I rather believe that other NATO members would turn their back on Turkey while strongly condemning Israel. Still that could have an interesting outcom with NATO effectively weakened (as most members betray their treaty obligation) and seriously switching the balance of power in the region.

Just a fun game idea. Leave it to your commands