[Mohoender]

HQ

The Turkish navy (several frigates including OH Perry and Meko 200 as well as support ships and submarines) is of course all powerful when compared to that of Israel (3 Sa'ar 5 covettes, 3 Type 212 submarines and above a dozen Sa'ar 4 missile boats).

Agree land action is out of the question except for Israeli commando operations at sea that can be countered by Turkish counter commando operations.

When it comes to air power, both can have it with Israel having a fair advantage: air bases are closer and well trained F15 pilots is something that lacks Turkey. Turkey has its closest air base in Cyprus but, has we just saw, this is as good as NATO having bases in Sicily to bomb Libya and it works fine.

The issue on territorial waters is indeed valid but debated. Waters in front of the Gaza strip are not Israeli territorial waters. However, authority had been granted to Israel to control these water, as well as the air space under, the Oslo agreement. This provided, however, for a permission ot be given to the Palestinians to go and fish up 20 miles off the coast. As this agreement as been broken by Israel and Israel alone (I don't care if they had a valid point to do it or not), it's legal authority over the water could be contested. The point is simply to know if Ankara would go as far as to sail into these waters. That's all the interest in that situation. Even when putting the political aspects (I mean religious craps from all sides) to the background, it's shadowy enough to conduct to various outcomes and, in that, bears some interesting common points with T2K's beginning.

War should not come but it might from a number of mistakes, lack of efforts and refusal to hear the other side (as pointed out by Panther). I know for the nukes but so far, I have left them out of the picture. I also agree with your statement on Israel not willing to loose but that is equally true for Turkey which has effectively become a dominant regional power and has a GDP growth of 8.2% in 2010 to compare with 1.8% for EU.

At a diplomatic level, the interesting thing is that it occurs now as EU has achieved a major diplomatic victory over Libya under the leadership of France (Sarkozy). Turkey had done almost everything to comply to EU pre-requisite in order to join the Union but it had been kept outside because of France (of course not alone but leading the Anti-Turc movement) and that same Sarkozy in 2007. Therefore, if Turkey has an issue with someone, it could well be with Europe, France and Sarkozy himself. Another thought.