Originally Posted by Panther Al
And here is what makes this whole thing even more devilish:
To Israel's north (relatively speaking) is Syria. Now, while all indications are that Assad hasn't much more time left before things catch up to him, it isn't totally implausible that he might try to start something with Israel to convince his detractors to focus on the one thing both sides agree on: Bashing Israel. After all, he has tried it a couple of times so far during this rebellion that he is dealing with so far, and while it has failed, he hasn't really tried all that hard either. Also, we can't forget Egypt either. As recent news has shown, the formally safe and secure border to the West is no longer such: Egypt liked receiving all that money from the US to keep the peace, and while I have no doubt the Military Leadership there would love nothing more than to keep that spigot flowing, events are rapidly escalating out of hand, to the point where Israel is beefing up its heavy forces facing Egypt to points not seen since Camp David.
Now, lets fast forward a few... (insert Scooby Doo flashback music)
Turkey decides to break international law and sends warships to break the blockade of Gaza. Shots are fired (We will assume its nothing more than heavy face saving for both parties: Turkey to be able to say they are willing to fight for the Palestinian cause, and the Israeli's to prove they won't be pushed about by anyone - even if its a serious shoot out (One that Turkey won't like the results of) the end result is more or less the same) and Turkey and Hamas scream to the media about the nasty evil Israelis. The Masses in Egypt could very easily force the military to take formal action in "support" of Hamas, actions the Military Leadership might easily feel they have no choice to accede to if for no other reason they like to keep the jobs they have. Assad also jumps in: He will also beat the Palestinian drum, knowing (and this isn't a totally unreasonable point) that he has at least a 50-50 chance of getting those that are currently shooting at him to refrain: after all, he will accuse the rebels in his country of supporting Israel if they continue, and no self respecting Syrian will ever let themselves be accused of *that*.
Which brings up the rather nasty spectre:
You have a strong US-Israeli alliance in all but name on one side.
You have a NATO member on the other - though it will be pointed out that A: Turkey started it, and B: They can always argue that the NATO treaty doesn't apply to the MiddleEast. Something that is technically true, but ambiguous enough to be argued either way, with Turkey providing all the support it can muster, which isn't insignificant.
You have Syria, the very definition of rogue state breaking out the heavy guns.
You have Egypt, a reluctant, but unable to anything but, attacker.
Could be a very nasty little war. I really don't see the Jordanians getting involved: They don't have any burning need to get involved, and the quietly agree with Israel on the whole Palestinian thing anyways.
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