Matt, you wrote:
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I'm going to go with a total North American population
(canada, US and Mexico) of about 20 to 25 million. (100K live in the Wisconsin Peninsula)
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I think this is a reasonable mid-range estimate.
Starting with 1989 populations:
U.S. 248M
Canada 27M
Mexico 82M
95% mortality at 1 year -> 17.8M survivors
Reverting back to medieval or earlier levels of population growth (400 years for doubling implies ~0.175% p.a. growth; 150, ~0.467%) isn't unreasonable given the collapse of agriculture, disease and the effects of environmental contamination (decreased fertility as well as greatly increased mortality from all causes).
Using 0.175% p.a. I get 23.1 million at 150 years post.
Using 0.467% p.a. gives you 35.6 million, natch.
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Rich 5/KFS: 2 million people (including slaves) live in what was once Kentucky, most of Tennessee and part of Alabama
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I think this is a very reasonable population estimate; you can't get much
lower unless the KFS is a garrison state like North Korea, or in a state of wartime mobilization - which seems unlikely. If the KFS is less militaristic, it pushes the required population up above five million (using countries in a wide variety of conditions as a guide).
As for the geography, it's not much of Alabama, just the upper part (because the Tennessee R. forms the southern border). I can shoot a map your way if you like (827 x 812kb jpeg, 434kb based off U.S. National Atlas map).
ArmySGT wrote:
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Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than I would put forth.
There is no major agriculture to support that many.
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Maybe. I think this is a lower bound. Here's why:
The absolute lower bound is 0.01 people per square km - hunter gathering levels of population density or ~0.01 x 24,709,000km^2 = 247,090 or about a quarter of a million people.
Agriculture really boosts carrying capacity.
Pastoralism gets you to 1 person per square km.
Shifting farming (slash and burn) gets you to 10.
Traditional farming (pre-industrial agriculture) gets you above 100.
Industrial farming allows densities >1000 per sq. km
(V. Smil, Feeding the World, fig 1.2)
18.6% of the U.S.'s area is arable.
5% of Canada's area is arable.
12.6% of Mexico's area is arable.
Overall - 11.5% of land area, with another 11% for pastures.
As an upper bound using the arable land and pasture percentage and the above values I get:
Pastoralism (cattle, goats, sheep, etc, on arable and pasture land): 5.5 million
Shifting farming (arable land only): 27 million
Traditional farming (arable land only): 270 million
Industrial farming (arable land only): 2700 million
Army SGT:
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Five years after the Big Bang, how many of that 5% are still alive?
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If you're proposing a two-log (99%) kill or more then that makes the Project extremely valuable in reconstruction. I think the rate of the dieoff levels out, which brings us back to something closer to the numbers above. Call me an optimist.
99% mortality at 5 years implies 3.56 million North American survivors.
Using 0.175% p.a. I get 4.6 million at 150 years post.
Using 0.467% p.a. gives you just under 7 million.
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I just think that in any place that is that well recovered is not going to need the Project, even going so far as to being hostile to the Projects meddling.
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Trade can be quite a sweetener, especially when you have:
- fusion power
- universal antidote/antibody
- inertial navigation/geospatial information systems (AutoNav)
Rob