A couple points to consider, especially once the pre-positioned stockpiles of non-perishables run out:
The agriculture around Tucson relies heavily on CAP water. A warlord or a covetous regional gonverment could easily disrupt the flow of CAP water to S. Arizona, making feeding the survivors of Tucson, at the very least, a very difficult proposition. Such a scenario would make a pretty cool adventure seed for a Thunder Empire-set campaign.
Not to split hairs but the Bubonic plague is a relatively easy disease to avoid/prevent and/or treat- all one has to do is stay as clean as possible and avoid the likely carriers (rodents, house pets). If infection occurs, antibiotics, if delivered early enough, can usually kill it. I don't see BP causing the scale of mortality that your write up describes. A reappearance of the more virulent airborne-transmitted Pneumocic Plague strains, however, would do the trick. It spreads much more easily (a cough or sneeze), is more aggressive, and harder to treat. A mutated version of PP would be a real killer.
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