How long is a piece of string?
The larger/faster shrapnel is moving, the higher the likelyhood it will do serious injury/damage. The shape and even how jagged it is will all likely have some influence on the end result.
All in all though it's a bit of a crap shoot. A weapon designer can prefragment the detonating device to (hopefully) evenly spread shrapnel of approximately equal size and (again hopefully) with predictable results, but there will always be an element of randomness.
Throw improvised charges into the mix, not one which is the same as another, and the situation gets even less predictable.
Without carrying out some fairly complex calculations for each and every blast, it's doubtful a truely accurate game mechanic could be developed. Take your best guess based on what you know and what you've been able to research - it's not like the players will know the difference when they're either catching a grenade in their teeth or putting up the bullet proof umbrella during a 203mm HE hailstorm.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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