Quote:
Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer
I realize how tricky defining "strategic" can be; I mean, a Flogger dropping a low-yield nuke to break up a POMCUS site that's located in a major port city - is that strategic or tactical?...but anyway...
Assuming for a minute that we're considering the v.1 timeline, if the Soviets don't turn the key, is it an eventual victory in Europe for (what's left of) NATO?
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Being Pedantic somewhat. We have to define Victory and define NATO's idea of it.
NATO is no longer the multitude of free western nations (plus France), its down to the rump. Good thing its the fighting rump.These remaining nations then have their own agendas or can perceived to be. First up the Germans.
Whatever you make of their intentions, the Germans have started this war or at least made it global. Their main goal of liberating and reunifying has paid off , but at quite a high price. What the Soviets said for years has come true and the rest of the alliance is somewhat worried about this new found aggression. So the German idea of victory is one that allows them to remain intact. But with the Russians at arms length.
The United States and the United Kingdom are of the same mind: End it as soon possible with a good result. Pushing on to Moscow is not what the American and British public's will accept if the cost of life is too high (plus the financial cost, but with lives at stake. This mainly worried by the respective treasury's). Joe and Tommy must not stand watch on the Kremlin wall for the next 50 years. The liberation of Eastern Europe is the goal up to a point. It seems every week another communist dictator is nothing more than red mist on a wall and abandoning them may not be a option. Perhaps as far as the Ukraine and the Baltic's.
The rest of the alliance is then divided out of those who have stayed for necessity (Turkey and Norway) or loyalty (Canada, Denmark and the Netherlands).
If the Soviets don't go nuclear for NATO (or their mind to prevent them from going nuclear) a point must be found that keeps Eastern Europe free but keeps the Soviet Union intact. It may collapse, but NATO thinks if it go's too far the button gets pushed. The remaining communist powers are on the way out, fragmenting as the allies pushed through and will not survive without Moscow.
The Point
Webstral thought a few years ago which would be acceptable to the Allies was around the Dnepr-Dvina. This the Allies can do with the resources they have right now.
Hopefully the ultimate wildcard, the Chinese who have gambled the entire western economy and who's long term plans remain elusive, can then be fobbed off with a concession of some kind (Siberia?).
For the poor Eastern European caught in the middle, sheltering in a basement with family knows only two things, he does not want the Germans to stay, but he most certainly does not want the Russians back.