Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker
I think the "honour" idea just doesn't work in T2K.
By 2000 nobody is going to care any more. There's no longer any allies to try impressing, the people at home don't have a clue about what's happening over the next hill, let alone care about Europe because they're too busy trying to survive, and for the soldiers themselves there's not a lot of meaning left either - they're even serving in units alongside former enemies.
A comparison to Vietnam doesn't work either - Vietnam was a war of public relations and the media. T2K doesn't have very much of either left.
Diplomacy no longer has any meaning by 2000. There's no governments left, at least none that are all that relevant any more. The new power is in the hands of the Generals and petty kingdoms that have sprung up everywhere. Not too many of them are going to care for an instant about a diplomatic "solution".
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Don't get too hung up on the political and PR aspects of the plan or assume that what I've proposed is a mirror image of the Vietnam situation.
I was looking at the summer offensive as being more of a psychological sop for the JCS and senior brass in Europe. Leaving Poland without a big victory to clean the palette would leave a sour taste in a lot of soldiers' mouths. The spectre of Vietnam and the psychological beating the military took both in Vietnam and at home in the States has still not quite been forgotten by the military establishment, even today. Returning home as losers would not sit well and the senior brass may have feared what would happen when the troops got home if they weren't feeling good about themselves and what they'd done in Europe.
In addition, the political side I was trying to emphasize (and apparently did a crummy job at) was the bit about the U.S. trying to convice Germany that an American withdrawal was in everyone's best interest. I think this would be a lot easier by guaranteeing the delivery of a crippling blow to the Soviet military in Poland before such a withdrawal would take place. Throwing in all of their heavy gear as part of the arrangement would only sweeten the pot. The U.S. would need the Germans' cooperation to pull it off. I can't see a "we're leaving now; good luck with the half-million Red Army troops hanging around on your doorstep..." approach going over very well with the Germans either.
Also, if MilGov pulled the troops out with nothing to show for it, CigGov could use it as a propaganda coup at home or in appealing to military units whose leadership was on the fence regarding MilGov and CivGov. No, the media and domestic communications networks are in very bad shape c.2000 but I'm sure that both political factions would be slagging their rivals at every opportunity in order to win public support or look more legitimate.
Militarily, I think the parallels between Poland in the summer of 2000 and S.E. Asia in 1970 are there. The idea behind the Cambodian invasion was to disrupt NVA supply networks running through Cambodia to disrupt and delay any future NVA offensive operations vs. the RVN., with an eye on a future U.S. pull-out from South Vietnam. I think this applies equally well to Poland- a strong attack on Soviet/WTO forces in western and central Polands to disrupt/delay any near-future Soviet offensive operations vs. Germany, giving the Germans time to find their own feet and adapt to the absence of strong American forces.
I think taken all together, it's a reasonably plausible scenario but thanks for your feedback.