[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

This seems very hopeful to me. How is NATO going to extract and refine this shale oil? I think it is safe to assume that any pre-existing infrastructure for doing so is bombed to ashes by the summer of 2000.

Well, if the Germans could do it in the late stages of WWII when their industry was a pulverised shell of what it once was....
I'm not saying it would be easy, just possible. The capture of the oil shale was also not likely to be a major objective, but a target of opportunity.

Originally Posted by Raellus

And how would NATO plan to hold a long, isolated front from Gdansk to Lithuania.

Part of the problem we face today is that the canon materials include unit information from both before and after the offensive without any real consistancy. for example we have units shown to be south of Berlin with prewar details, yet the US XI Corps have their locations shown as post offensive, even though the date is supposed to be pre offensive. For the offensive to have been even contemplated in the beginning, Nato had to have beleived they had the strength to seize and hold a large swath of Poland. We can assume the 5th ID was not intended to be in the Lodz area alone very long, and as Lodz is a long way from the coast, we have to assume the follow on units (the bulk of the German III Army, as well as the British were strong enough and large enough in early 2000 to fulfill their role.
As I've said time and time again, the Pact units actually in contact with Nato at the outset were relatively weak, lulling Nato into the false belief of their military superiority. As we can see in canon, the Soviet counter offensive was brutal and came out of nowhere.

We also know the Tarawa was still floating in the initial stages of the offensive and a ship of it's status isn't likely to be sailing around unescorted. It could well be that the plan for the oil shale, processed or not, was to be carried by these ships. Unprocessed a simple cargo ship would suffice, processed and you'd need tanks (or lots and lots of barrels).

Originally Posted by Raellus

And what about the elephant in the room? Wouldn't NATO troops on Soviet territory prompt nuclear attacks?

Canon materials downplay the availablity of nukes. In fact I can recall only one warhead still in Soviet hands (Bears Den I think). Boomer also shows the great lengths the Soviets go to to recover he sub and especially it's handful of warheads.
We also see in Twilight encounters that one of the scenarios lists the Pact as having a handful of long range missiles at their disposal, but no nuclear warheads. The plan was for a precision strike using conventional explosive warhead on an important communications hub or headquarters based on intel from a recon flight by one of the last two remaining aircraft.

Therefore, it's safe to say nukes are not a serious, widespread threat.

Originally Posted by Raellus

1. Sufficient combat strength to seize and hold a continuous front of several hundred miles along the Baltic coast,

They had it. Just look at all the previous work I've done on the subject. It was the unexpected brutality of the Pact counteroffensive which smashed the plan into oblivion.

Originally Posted by Raellus

Adequate shipping needed to both support a Baltic NATO pocket AND remove the oil.

Suppies come in, oil shale goes out. Same ships, different directions.

Originally Posted by Raellus

2. Adequate infrastructure to transport and refine the shale oil, once it was extracted.

See comment on Tarawa

Originally Posted by Raellus

3. A way to ensure/protect against a Soviet nuclear response to an incursion on to its sovereign soil.

See above

Originally Posted by Raellus

Oh, and if the oil from the shale beds in Lithuania is able to be extracted and refined in the Summer of 2000, why aren't the Soviets themselves already doing it?

That is a question I have too, however it may have something to do with the Soviet units in the area. One of the three (at least - memory is a bit vague at the moment) has defected and barely has the strength to hold back the other(s). The native population have suffered badly from the war with vast swaths of the countryside abandoned - I can't see them supporting much more than subsistance farming, etc.

As already established, oil shale is difficult to process. Given the Ploesti fields and greater potential output (once they fixed the refineries), closer location of Ploesti to where the fuel is needed, and relative isolation of Estonia, it begins to make sense why the Soviets were not actively exploiting the resource. Nato also probably targeted this area heavily early in the war with airstrikes to destroy much of the industry and transportation - rebuilding was probably not a priority for the Soviets given the situation they faced elsewhere.
And once again, the oil shale isn't likely to have been the main objective of the offensive - that was far more likely to have been putting pressure on the northern flank of the Pact units in Germany and Poland and giving the Pact commanders cause to withdraw or face encirclement.

Originally Posted by Raellus

This is just my opinion, but a large-scale raid (I believe canon calls the Summer Offensive a "raid" at least once)/ spoiling attack is a lot more plausible than a general offensive to seize and hold Lithuanian oil shale beds.

It's the US 5th ID's action which is described as a raid. They were just one small (no more than 5% by manpower) part of the overall offensive.

One has to remember this wasn't a Divisional operation, or even just a Corps involved. You have to go bigger, much bigger. The offensive elements alone were an entire Army with the British Army and other formations tasked with support and to follow on after.

This action was HUGE and involved at least half of Nato's forces. Only in the south facing down towards the Italians, or up in Norway was the front quiet.