[Webstral]

Someone may try to get all of the Sunni Arab players in a single box to fight the Shi'a in Iraq. There probably are still Ba'athist cells in Iraq, so it's possible that Syria might want to support the Iraqi fascists. On the other hand, it seems like Syria's plate is plenty full. Then there's Turkey's interests in the region.

Once the civil war does break out, the attitudes of the other major players capable of providing arms and armaments become an open question. What outcome does China want to see? What outcome does Russia want to see? What outcome does France want to see? What outcome does Israel want to see?

China's leading concern probably is access to oil. A stable Iraq is a better source of oil than a chaotic Iraq. However, if the Chinese don't believe they can get a stable Iraq in one play, they may try to shape events so that they can get a stable Iraq in the future. China has a relationship with Iran that is closer than its relationship with the Gulf States. How will that affect decision-making? Will old-fashioned politics cause China to back Iran and thus the Iraqi Shi'a, or will market pressures oblige China to back the Gulf States for access to their oil? There are other variables to be considered, such as the proximity of Iran to Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as American public opinion. We can't have American public opinion, which is already sour on China, turn into action that diminishes American consumption of Chinese goods. Though our addiction to cheap junk is unlikely to be overcome by something so far removed as global politics, once never knows. If MADE IN CHINA can be connected somehow to a Chinese betrayal of the sacrifices of American troops in Iraq, the unlikely might become possible.

Russia will have somewhat different priorities. As a major oil exporter, Russia stands to gain from a drop in Iraqi exports.