Both are good scenarios (excllent writes by the way!).
As to the most likely, I believe that the first one may be the more realistic, especially in light of a certain administration's decision to gut our current military.
Having said that....
It's very unlikely that the PRC will invade Taiwan any time soon. Their military, while undergoing an impressive buildup, is not yet in position to escalate the war by attacking Japan and the US, at least not without a lot of political maneuvering prior to launching the attack.
Just a few thoughts while I'm listening to the latest politically-correct behavior that will be expected from government employees in the next year....
Please....just shoot me!
