Off the top of my head two "debatable" events are
1. The first Gulf War (I think Webstral put together a piece a while back that presented a scenario where GW1 still took place, but you have to bear in mind that from a UK perspective at least all the tanks got taken from Germany which seriously reduced the strength of the BAOR at the time - debatable whether that would have happened with an ongoing Cold War.
2. The fall of apartheid. There have been a couple of threads about South Africa before where this has come up. IIRC the white South African Government first started talking to the ANC during the second half of the 80's, but it's debatable where things might have gone if the Soviet Union hadn't collapsed (one of the major fears of the white Government was that the ANC would turn the country into a communist state - to a certain extent the collapse of the Soviet Union rendered many of those fears null and void).
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Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor's Guide to the United Kingdom
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