Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker
If Stalin could have kept the US out of a continuing war.....
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It's hard to imagine how that would have happened, though. Any attack on Western Europe would have been an attack on US forces.
Possibly, Stalin might have become convinced that the Western Allies were about to kick the alliance to the curb. In this instance, he might have become convinced that the best chance for Soviet success lay in an all-out invasion of Western Europe that would force the US to negotiate peace. He might have known that the US would have had real trouble raising the money to pay for further arms and armaments. He might have gambled that the US would be closer to its point of psychological exhaustion than the USSR. He might have known that the US did not have any more atomic weapons ready for use. He might have figured that control of Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, and maybe Norway would present the Allies with too great a task to continue fighting--at least until the Soviets could make their own atomic weapons and delivery systems.
Stalin would have been keenly aware that his refusal to make preparations in the face of Nazi preparations led to disaster in 1941. If he became convinced that the Allies were interested in picking up where the Germans had left off, he might very well be predisposed towards pre-emptive action. In this case, he would not have transferred forces to East Asia. He would have left them in Europe and launched an offensive there. I can’t say whether he would have intended to stop at the Rhine or press on into France. It’s hard to say whether he would have gone into Greece or Italy. Stalin probably would have directed forces into Iran, which would have yielded a warm-water port for later use. Soviet forces might have entered the Chinese Civil War, too. It’s hard to say whether and when the Japanese would have surrendered in August 1945 without a Soviet offensive in Manchuria.
Equally hard to guess would be the reaction among the Allies. Obviously, the Allies would react with all due vigor to having been attacked. But what would public opinion in the US and the UK be? The UK in particular might have been a spent force at that point. Would the American citizenry be willing to accept another long war? What strategic plan could have been sold to the American people? How would an onslaught by heavily armored Soviet forces have affected the Allies? There is a huge number of unknowns. It would make for some exciting reading, though.