Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker
The evidence does seem to back up a planned Pact offensive, but I'm not so sure it would have waited until autumn/winter - harvesting has to be done before the crops simply rot in the fields.
What the evidence doesn't show us is whether or not the Pact was taken by surprise. It's certainly possible, but even without aerial and satellite surveillance they'd have to know something was on the cards. Nato hadn't carried out any significant action in the north of Germany for approximately two years and those units there had for the most part done nothing but train, reorganise and build up supplies during that period (down south it was a bit different).
It's possible the Pact 2000 offensive was delayed, either because of weather conditions preventing reinforcements being brought up in time, or because the commanders "smelt a rat" and decided to hold their units for the probable need for a counter attack.
|
There is also the possibility the the Soviet Military leaders were looking at history. The great winter offensives of 1942,1942, and 1943 during the Great Patriotic War all worked to one degree or another. The Russian Bear was always most dangerous during the winter. (Ask the Swedes, French and Germans!) What better way to drive that offensive then with the Russian IVth Army with it's gasoline (diesel?) powered tanks. The delay could have been pre-programmed to allow the Romanian Oil Fields more time to produce and refine gasoline/diesel!!
Obviously from the ORBAT of the Russian Army as presented by Allied Intellegence to Vth ID, the planners of the Allied offensive did NOT expect to run into IVth Russian.
I can see the commander of IVth Russian turning his entire "Ranger"/Spetnaz units loose on the Allied offensive as soon as the drive was anylized and plotted on the gaming table!
My $0.02
Mike