Logical points, I actually agree with many of the points.
My major divergence is that you are assuming the Army is regular (nice distinction on the later units), I instituted the draft early in the war (with a VERY abbreviated training regime). This radically changes the character of the Army.
A few other observations for discussion:
* what percentage of the returning bodies are actually non-combatants, probably not that high but that will reduce the figures a little?
* is there enough of a logistics base to support the new units? In your version probably there is. In mine probably not.
* could troops returning home be thinking, "that's it now, I've done my share." From memory the Texas module implies they don't know what is going on there. Finding that out when they get back might make a difference but I guess that combat weariness and the thought of being the last US soldier to die might not do much for morale...
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