It's a good thought. I think naval T2K canon can make sense if we take a holistic view. I agree that attrition of personnel with technical expertise could lead to vessel attrition through accident and wear (or unmanned vessels sitting in port for lack of a competent crew). Also, undermanned vessels are more likely to succumb to enemy action. Take out a few naval port facilities with nukes, and damaged/worn out ships can't be repaired and returned to service quickly.
It's not mentioned either way in canon, but an additional explanation for the sorry state of the USN late in the war is the use of tactical nuclear weapons at sea. Even a near miss or nuclear-armed SSM intercepted relatively close to a carrier battle group could do enough damage to put vessels out of commision for a while, and a direct hit could destroy most, if not all, of a CBG.
Put these all together and add in the inevitable conventional battle losses and you have a skeleton fleet c. 2000.
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