[Webstral]

I agree that it will be better for everyone if the contest goes to court. Unfortunately, it takes everybody to live in peace but only one party to start a fight. I don't have a good lens on China's senior leadership. However, I'm aware that they have made a certain quid pro quo trade with the Chinese people: the Communists get to stay in charge and limit political freedom in return for rapid economic growth. If China's rate of growth slows significantly, there could be internal problems. An external adventure that can be blamed on someone else may become the cure for restiveness in that event. Also, a disruption of Persian Gulf oil and/or oil from the Sudan may cause the Politburo to conclude that control of the Spratleys offers better oil security. Such a move might allow the PLAN to score a victory over a second-string player. They might be willing to roll the dice versus the USN; or, with Chinese forces in control of the Spratleys, they might insist that the matter be taken to the UN, where issues of who owes how much money to whom might "influence" justice.

Neither Obama nor Romney are the sorts to go head-to-head with China over aggression. Too many American businesses could lose out if the Chinese decide to nationalize certain foreign assets. Never mind that China would lose an important market. The investors will blink before the Politburo settles down for a serious staring contest. Blinking investors send their agents to bang on the doors of Congress. Sigh. Capitalism and federal republicanism certainly do have their weaknesses.