Quote:
Originally Posted by Webstral
Only if they were ready to go to war with NATO as a whole at that point. The boys in the Kremlin would know that the Americans would consider this an act of war. CINC GSFG would point out that the addition of the remaining forces of NATO to the fighting in Germany would exacerbate the balance of forces problem. There was no point in sinking a few or a couple dozen supply ships in the Atlantic if the prompt entrance of NATO into the equation ended up costing the Pact their hold on East Germany.
On the other hand, the Soviets would have known that the US was resupplying West Germany. They might have tried claiming that shipments of arms and ammunition constituted active support for West Germany. Therefore, Soviet naval forces should have been free to intercept shipping bound for West Germany. The US could have gotten around this by landing arms and ammunition elsewhere in Western Europe. And again, torpedoing American vessels in international waters would give the US its casus belli—something best avoided, since the Soviets were not prepared to bring a conventional war in Germany to a successful conclusion until the end of November.
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I agree. But if the Soviets believed that the U.S. was sending additional units/material to Europe with the intention of joining the fight, it might pay to strike first. Why give the Americans the opportunity to reinforce their forces already in Germany? If the Soviets could send a brigade's worth of Abrams to the bottom of the Atlantic before they could get their treads on German soil, why wait? IRL, the Soviets had high level agents deep in NATO until the Cold War ended; they could have let the Kremlin know in advance that the United States was seriously considering jumping into the conflict on the side of the Germans. The Soviets would have had intelligence letting them know when the ships were leaving, from what ports, and bound for what European harbors; presumably, the Red Fleet would have had submarines prepositioned to intercept those vessels. Yes, it's a risky escalation, but if the Soviets believe the U.S. is about to enter the war, I believe they would give the green light to preemptive strikes.