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Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer
Forty-five years prior they killed 30m of their own and the world didn't bat an eye.
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I’m not sure the world knew what was happening inside the borders of the world’s least open society.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer
At this point they've bombed entire populations out of existence all through Manchuria, why should they care what the world thinks about a few hundred thousand more dead?
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As a practical matter, not all dead people are equal. I know it's awful to say, but dead peasants in Manchuria play differently in the West than dead Germans. With the Black Winter behind them, the West Germans have at least a scrap of credibility in the idea that they are liberating fellow Germans who are being held thrall by foreign masters. If the Soviets are ready to go to war with all of NATO, then they don't need to care what the voting population of NATO countries thinks. If they want to limit the conflict, then the answer "F*** you, we'll gas as many people as we damned well please," is of limited utility. The French may not love the Germans, but they don’t want to see millions slaughtered by nerve agents, either. There comes a point where public opinion in the West will swing in favor of what the West Germans are trying to accomplish just because the TV screens have been filled with images of East German children dead from nerve, blood, or blister agent exposure.
The Soviets can’t help but be mindful that Western assistance brought unwelcome results in China from late 1995 onward. I’ve never gotten back to Operations Tchaikovsky I and II, but in a nutshell Western volunteers take to the skies to help defend southern China against the SAF. Western-made SAM and radar begin appearing in southern China, too, manned by people who do not look Asian. (Think Flying Tigers) Once they start using chemical weapons in the DDR, the US almost certainly will provide the West Germans with the means to respond in kind. The replacements flooding into the DDR will be especially vulnerable because they will either be new recruits rushed through training or reservist rushed through a refresher. My sphincter tightens just thinking about getting onto a chemical battlefield in second-rate Soviet gear after hasty training. The Soviets might not care about East German casualties, but the East Germans will. It’s going to be hard to keep the East Germans sitting on the sideline while the one party who starts the war with chemical weapons uses them willy-nilly. Also, once the Luftwaffe drops the Oder River bridges in the initial offensive, an air bridge is going to be needed to bring in men. Persistent lethal agents here will very badly disrupt the reinforcement effort. Also, it stands to reason that once the US provides the West Germans with the means of chemical warfare, targets in Poland and Czechoslovakia will be available for action. Polish and Czechoslovak morale will be affected. Heck, if the Soviets use chemicals against targets in West Germany, it stands to reason that similar targets in Belarus are open for chemical attack. It all gets sticky very, very quickly.
For this reason, I see chemical use in Europe operating much the same way as in China. After an initial surge of gratuitous use, the Soviets see good reason to curtail use. Non-lethal agents continue to enjoy widespread use, since they impose many of the same burdens on combat troops as persistent agents minus most of the negative side effects. But lethal agents have serious downsides on the battlefield and politically. They might just change public opinion in France, Italy, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer
Blame it on NATO (one way or the other), win, write history any way they want.
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There’s only so much chemical use you can blame on NATO. NATO isn’t going to lay down persistent agents at a half-dozen Luftwaffe bases in West Germany for the sake of blaming it on the Soviets. NATO isn’t going to gas the Bundeswehr rear areas, either. The West Germans, who are invading to reunite the country, are not highly motivated to kill half the population of East Germany—even if they had chemical weapons.