[Webstral]

Before addressing how much cover and/or support mobilization in the NATO allies gives either West German strategic surprise or China’s war effort, I’ll list my findings on mobilization dates. Everything listed below stands out as provocative of the Soviets.

Dutch Army
1st Mech Division: alerted 15 JUL 96, full mobilization on 17 JUL 96
4th Mech Division: alerted 20 JUN 96, full mobilization on 21 JUN 96
5th Mech Division (Reserve): alerted 12 SEP 96, full mobilization 14 SEP 96
101st Mech Brigade (Reserve): alerted 02 OCT 96, full mobilization 05 OCT 96
1st Commando Group, Royal Netherlands Marines: sent to Norway JUL 96

British Army
2nd Armoured Division: “formed up” Summer 1996
4th Armoured Division: formed 15 SEP 96
1st Royal Marine Brigade: deployed to Norway 01 NOV 96
19th Infantry Brigade: “formed up” 08 AUG 96

US Army
116th Armored Cavalry Regiment: alerted 12 JAN 96, deployed to FRG in AUG 96
278th Armored Cavalry Regiment: alerted 21 AUG 96
221st Military Police Brigade: alerted 01 JUL 96
228th Signal Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
184th Infantry Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
49th Military Police Brigade: alerted 20 AUG 96
43rd Military Police Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
35th Engineer Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
30th Engineer Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
29th Infantry Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
1st Infantry Brigade (arctic recon): alerted 03 JUL 96
2nd Infantry Brigade (arctic recon): alerted 03 JUL 96
35th Infantry Division: alerted prior to 23 AUG 96
50th Armored Division: alerted 21 AUG 96

Taken together, these mobilizations would be certain to make the Soviets highly suspicious in advance of the West German coup de main in East Germany. The West Germans are counting on strategic surprise. And yet, the Dutch are bringing their active duty divisions up to full strength in the summer of 1996. A Marine Commando Group heads off to Norway—apparently to stay—in July, 1996. A reserve division gets called up almost a month before the Bundeswehr is supposed to cross the border, and a reserve brigade gets orders on the eve of the invasion. No one in their right minds believes he Dutch are going to take unilateral action against the Soviet Union. The Soviets, being Soviets, would suspect that the Dutch actions fit a bigger picture; and they would look for that bigger picture in West Germany first.

The British mobilization possibly could be written off as belonging to concerns outside Europe. Still, there is a lot of activity in the three months prior to the West German invasion of the DDR. Again, the Soviets have plenty of reason to get excited.

And what is the story with the US Army? There is a lot of activity in late August that would be hard to pass off as an AT, given that most National Guard units are supposed to conduct their AT earlier in the summer. And the units never stand down. Heightened American activity will set off alarms in the Kremlin. Raising Soviet suspicions is not going to help the West Germans.

Now, it’s possible that the Dutch are operating completely in the dark regarding West German intentions. It’s possible that the Brits also are operating in the dark. It’s very unlikely that the US is operating in the dark since the West Germans are going to need an American nuclear guarantee. If the Americans know that the West Germans are going to invade in October, then wouldn’t SACEUR discourage the Dutch from mobilizing and arousing Soviet suspicions? Of course, the Dutch are free to conduct major readiness operations as they see fit. Still, it’s odd.

Perhaps, though, Kato has the right idea in that keeping the Soviets guessing about what is happening in Europe was intended to help the Chinese and backfired. The West Germans failed to go it alone. Perhaps the heightened activity in the US, the UK, and the Netherlands during the three months leading up to 07 OCT 96 caused the Soviets to make just enough preparations to foil the West Germans. Had none of the NATO allies done anything out of the ordinary prior to the West German invasion of East Germany, maybe the West Germans would have reached the Oder. Another division or two might have been withdrawn from the Soviet garrisons in Eastern Europe, along with another air army. This would be in keeping with the Twilight: 2000 theme of errors in judgment all around.

We don’t know what happened in France, Belgium, Italy, or Greece prior to the West German invasion. I’m idly curious. If France conducted a major mobilization exercise, the Soviets surely would have become excited about it.