I go with a modified TL that borrows a bit from Sir John Hackett's books. In those Yugoslavia begins to fall apart and its various parts ask for support from the two big blocs. Civil War occurs and includes a clash between US Marines and Soviet troops along the Slovenian border. I'd imagine Croatia and perhaps Bosnia and Macedonia would be pro-NATO as well. Serbia would tend to lean towards the USSR an attempt to reclaim whatever it could take by force.
Benjamin
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