I have wrestled with the question of what goods can be produced in the post-Exchange world a good deal for “Thunder Empireâ€. I can’t say that I have come to any firm conclusions. However, it seems to me that there are several variables, which I will attempt to address below.
How many people are available for activities other than subsistence agriculture? Obviously, it’s impossible to completely isolate any locale, but by 2000 a lot of places are pretty darned isolated. SAMAD (Southern Arizona Military Administrative District) is pretty much out-of-contact with the wider world. News comes in through Huachuca’s LRS, and the occasional group of refugees comes in. A few Mexican troops and marauders are periodically captured. There is radio contact with limited portions of the outside world. However, MilGov hasn’t had anything useful to say since the end of 1998. There is no trade to speak of with the outside world. Lack of trade is one of the looming problems hanging over the success of SAMAD in early 2001.
Getting back to the availability of labor, the number of people still alive has to be multiplied by the percentage of the work force dedicated to growing or acquiring food. In some locations, this number might be relatively favorable. Colorado might only have to devote a third of its labor force to food production, given that the eastern part of the state has an existing and extensive agricultural base that can be provided with fossil fuels from the Wyoming wells. (My estimate of a third is a guess, at best. Obviously, more people are going to be required for food production because the pre-Exchange specialized agricultural system is gone. Vegetables and other necessities will have to be grown by more labor-intensive methods, I think.) On the other hand, in some locations virtually everybody will have to be involved in getting enough to eat.
The State of Vermont cantonment, the United Communities of Southern Vermont (UCSV), the State of New Hampshire cantonment based at Manchester, the Nashua dictatorship, the Shire of Keene, and the territory controlled by the 43rd MP Brigade in western Massachusetts had fairly similar ratios of food producers to non-food producers in 1999. In all of these locations, pre-Exchange food production was limited. The Vermont government enjoyed a modest head-start over its neighbors in that a strong dairy industry resulted in a fairly strong agricultural base in the west-central part of the state to provide the cattle with feed. As a result, Vermont was able to make the transition to food self-sufficiency at a higher level of productivity than its neighbors. Nevertheless, the generally lower quality of Vermont’s soil vis-Ã*-vis the eastern Colorado soil has prevented the State of Vermont from reaching the same per-capita level of productivity. About half of Vermont’s population is directly engaged in food production. Sixty to seventy percent of the population is engaged in feeding itself in the neighboring areas.
Along the coast of New England are two entities with significantly more favorable ratios of food producers to non-producers. Both the 1st District (USCG) and the United Brotherhood of Fishermen (UBF) have the right mix of fishing expertise, nautical know-how, and firepower to secure substantial harvests of fish and other seafood. A relative handful of fishermen can provide large numbers of calories. However, in both locations there remains a major need for vegetable gardening during the growing season.
SAMAD began 1999 with a highly unfavorable ratio of food producers to non-producers. The nature of the land and the water supplies dictated an extremely labor-intensive approach to agriculture. The civilian population of SAMAD was able to feed itself using very small parcels of land and surprisingly little water. The chief drawback of the methods used by SAMAD was the amount of labor required to prepare the beds and, in particular, to provide water within the sharp limits of water availability. Irrigation was out of the question in SAMAD. Water-fed agriculture was doomed to limited productivity. Therefore, in the years immediately following the Exchange, water had to be applied by hand. In 1998, productivity was crushingly low; only the stockpiles assembled before the Exchange kept the population from starving to death in 1998. However, improved techniques allowed SAMAD to provide for its own needs in 1999—albeit by keeping eighty percent of the population in agriculture, ranching, gathering, and hunting.
It seems to me that the industrial production of the population not engaged in agriculture would depend on the number of people available, the infrastructure available, the expertise available, the energy available, and the raw materials available. Some locations will be more blessed with a given resource than others. Nashua and Manchester of 2000 are going to have modest industrial resources next to 1st District (which has the advantage of the Portsmouth Naval Yard and Bath Iron Works). The major MilGov enclaves, like Puget Sound, New Jersey, and especially Colorado, will be in much better shape in terms of resources. Most cantonments are going to have a very limited industrial capability, though. Limited industrial capacity almost certainly means limited technological capacity.
By 2000, only a few areas of the country might be capable of repairing any advanced technology. Colorado, Puget Sound, and eastern Virginia come to mind. Even there, the ability to manufacture missiles of any kind probably would be out of the question. Getting back to the original question, it might be possible for certain cantonments to reproduce a modified WW2 technology. Assault rifles—especially of the AK47 variety—are not especially demanding to manufacture, although obviously one needs the right tools and materials. Radios shouldn’t be too hard, although certain components might prove a challenge. Radar, night vision, and advanced optics might be impossible until the country has recovered a good deal more.
As a side note, I must confess that I am guilty of a behavior that I strongly discourage in my students. I have been riding them about “one shot, one kill†writing. Lately, I have been requiring my students to write at least two drafts of everything they submit to me. Sorry, gentlemen—this is yet another first-draft wonder from me.
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