Quote:
Originally Posted by Targan
At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.
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I think this analysis is pretty spot on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RN7
He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?
It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine
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I would agree with pretty much all of this as well. If the Russians do take over the Crimea there
might be a bit of tut tutting and finger wagging from some elements in the EU and that will be that. I can't imagine things will be any different in the US. Ukraine will be no different from Georgia if it comes down to a confrontation with Russia - left to its own devices by everyone else and having to make peace on Russia's terms.