[Webstral]

I think it's very easy to confuse partisan mudslinging for reality. There is no compelling evidence that the current White House Administration would not live up to the treaty obligations of the United States. None. There's plenty of bellyaching in some circles about how the President hasn't stood his ground or gone to war or all of that nonsense--almost all of it from people who either have money in the defense industry, who stand to gain financially from one war or another, or who expect to be provided with top-notch entertainment at the cost of American lives and treasure. If Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya have taught us anything it should be that getting rid of the old regime doesn't make the emergence of a good republic an automatic or even terribly likely outcome. Our interventions should tell us that for all our power we are incapable of generating the outcomes we desire based on the resources we are willing to commit and the mindset we bring to the task. While the current developments suck for the Ukraine, there was never any real chance of the United States intervening in the Crimea. There are limits to our powers. I would hate to see 16,000 good paratroopers sacrificed on fool's errand to prop up our pride in an area that is simply outside our sphere of influence.

I do think we need to do more to reassure our newest NATO allies that we are going to stand by our treaty obligations. Europe will follow if we lead. Certainly, Europe will not act in anything like a decisive fashion without our lead. Everybody who has an alliance with the United States is watching to see what we will do to back our allies. We may not have the ability to safeguard the Ukraine, but we are obliged to shed blood and treasure to safeguard Poland, Romania, and the Baltics.

The composition of a new army group (EastAG?) in Poland would depend a great deal on the results of negotiations among the NATO members. It would be great to have a German heavy division or two, but I don’t know how possible that is. The German constitution places limits on sending German troops outside the country. The Poles might be uncomfortable with the idea, too. The French ought to be able to send a division, but it’s hard to say how reliable they are. The Brits ought to be able to send a division, but it’s hard to say whether they can pay for it. The Netherlands and Belgium probably ought to be able to send a brigade, but it’s hard to say whether the voting public will be willing to finance such a venture when it’s easier to let the Americans and the other large nations do all the dirty work. Spain could send a division, but I wonder if she could be convinced to send a brigade. Ditto Italy. The Czechs probably would take the situation seriously enough to commit troops forward, as would the Bulgarians. I don’t know about the Greeks, even if they had the money to send any troops forward. So while I think it needs to happen, I’m not especially sanguine about getting cooperation out of the Western Europeans in their current frame of mind. Still, one never knows.