Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Do you really think that Germany and France and the other more affluent EU member nations are going to keep bailing out Greece and Italy and Spain indefinitely?
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Honestly? Haven't a clue. That's why I would welcome opinions from other members.
I do think that if a second bailout was to become a major issue in the future there is much more chance of France and Germany forcing the expulsion of the debtor States from the EU (which would involve rewriting the Treaty of Europe if the debtors did not leave out of choice) rather than France or Germany (or any other creditor State) choosing to leave. As I said in a previous post, France and Germany (and others) have too much invested in the EU to walk away from it. So it would be the debtors that would be forced out, effectively creating a two tier Europe, consisting of the have's on one side and the have not's on the other.
From the point of view of a Twilight 2030 scenario that's probably not a bad outcome, as the have nots would, presumably, not be well disposed to the have's who not refused to bail them out again but threw them out of the club. Sounds like fertile ground for the Russians to reach out to and offer aid in the way that you mentioned. (I find it analagous to a relative who has run out of money and can't pay their rent - how often do you bail them out before you eventually say "no more" and at that point who do they turn to)
So, as part of the T2030 scenario are we proposing a renewed economic crisis at some point in the future that causes serious and permanent splits within the EU that lead to a number of States (Spain, Portugal, Greece?) being forced to leave the EU? If so I think I could go along with that.
And, as a separate matter, there also remains the possibility of the United Kingdom opting to leave the EU of its own accord dependent on the result of the 2015 General Election and any subsequent Referendum.