Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
That's exactly what I was getting at. Now, what could prompt a global international crisis? I'm thinking a war involving China. That would do the trick, most likely.
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Off the top of my head I don't know. Taiwan would obviously be a major flashpoint. Only other one I'm familiar with are the Spratly Islands. A naval conflict between China and Vietnam there could theoretically escalate into a full scale War. The Spratlys are also claimed by, amongst others, the Philippines, so there is potential for further escalation, if for example, a Phillipine Navy ship gets "accidentally" sunk by the Chinese.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands
I think the US has to get involved in a shooting war in Asia
before the Russians make their move in Europe though. The Russians have to think that the Americans are too involved in Asia to also get involved in Europe.
So how about the following over a two / three year period
• Relations between the US and China become strained; there's no War (yet) but the strain on relations causes the US and European economies to go into recession (again)
• The recession causes a new crisis within the Eurozone and several countries require a bailout. Other EU States (led by Germany) refuse to finance a fresh bailout package, leading to a crisis that ultimately leads to several of the member States that were seeking a bailout leaving the EU
• The Russians reach out to those former EU members offering an attractive package of assistance
• A fresh wave of fighting in the Pacific escalates (over Taiwan maybe?), drawing the United States into the conflict. The US is forced to commit forces allocated to NATO roles to the Pacific Theatre
• At the behest of the Chinese, North Korea invades South Korea, leading to further pressure on US commitments
• The Kremlin leadership calculate that with the US committed elsewhere, NATO will not offer any military opposition to a Russian occupation of the Baltic States
• Russian forces invade Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
• NATO splits; some countries withdraw from the alliance but others honour their treaty obligations and declare War on Russia