OK. I like pretty much everything y'all have posted so far. I think it works really well. Now we just need to formulate some kind of a timeline. How about this for starters.
By 2020, Eastern Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova are, for all intents and purposes, part of the Greater Russian Federation. Putin is president for life or some such.
2020-2024: - The Chinese economy sees several consecutive years of rapidly slowing growth. Economic reforms show minimal positive impact. Social unrest looms.
- Austerity measures fail in Southern Europe. General strikes and riots paralyze the affected nations. Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal request another round of bailouts from the EU, while political radicals in those countries call for separation from the Eurozone.
- The U.S. economy enters into a mild recession.
2025:- China, hoping to rally the populace behind a nationalistic military enterprise, seizes islands in the Spratly chain long claimed by Vietnam. The Vietnamese navy is thrashed by the PLN as they gamely attempt to defend the islands. A short border war on land ensues.
- The U.S. and its regional allies protest vociferously but make no move to support Vietnam by direct military intervention. Economic sanctions against China are quickly enacted. The UN brokers a ceasefire but the Chinese refuse to relinquish their territorial gains in the Spratys. The U.S. pledges military support to Malaysia and the Philippines, should the Chinese attempt to continue their conquest of the Spratly islands. The U.S. also enters into talks with Vietnam, precursor to a formal military alliance between the two former foes.
- India is alarmed by Chinese militarism and is one of the PRC's most vocal critics.
2026: - The short war contributes to a global economic recession, as sanctions end up hurting the west more than they hurt China.
- The economies of southern Europe are on the verge of collapse. The wealthier nations of Europe, after much debate, decide to cut the debtor nations loose. France is one of the most vocal opponents of this decision.
- Russia makes diplomatic/economic overtures to the recent outcasts.
- China strengthens economic and military ties with Pakistan, Myanmar, and Indonesia. Secretly, China tacitly agrees not to oppose a North Korean attempt to reunify the Korean peninsula.
2027: - An ailing Kim Jong Un orders a surprise invasion of South Korea. The U.S. and its regional allies, including Japan, rally to the ROK's defense.
- With NATO compromised by the contraction of the EU, and the U.S. occupied with a full-blown war in Korea, Russia makes its play for the Baltic states.
- The U.S., already overstretched, reinstitutes the draft.
- China, also takes advantage of the situation by attacking Taiwan in preparation for a long-planned invasion.
- Indonesia, prompted by China, launches an invasion of Papua New Guinea.
- Pakistan and India resume fighting over Kashmir.
So, WWIII pretty much starts in earnest in 2027.