[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by Targan

I disagree. There is no way Australia would stand back and let Indonesia invade Papua New Guinea.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this, the politicians of this country didn't have the balls to stop cross-border raids into PNG by Indonesia during the West Irian insurgency and they actually started to investigate Australians who sent aid to the West Irian groups. During that period, the Australian government went as far as to make it a crime for any Australian citizen to be employed as a soldier in a foreign, non-government military, irrespective of whether they got paid for their services or not they were classed as mercenaries and would be prosecuted to the full extent of the law if caught. This was in response to several Australian ex-military personnel going to Indon-controlled East Timor and also Burma to give military training to the oppressed minorities in those countries - the Australian government didn't want to upset the governments of those countries.

Originally Posted by Targan

Australia failed to stop the Indonesians from annexing East Timor and West Irian during the 1970s largely because of the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Public sentiment was totally against going to war again so soon and the Australian military's morale had utterly collapsed. I wasn't even in Australia at the time and wasn't even in primary school yet but looking back at it I'm appalled and disgusted at Australia's lack of action against Indonesia during the early to mid 1970s.

Australia didn't even try to stop Indonesia from invading East Timor, despite pleas from East Timorese for Australia to aid them. Even with the substantial debt we owed them due to all the support the Timorese gave Australian forces battling the Japanese during WW2 and even after Indonesian troops murdered several Australian journalists, the government here took minimal action.
I disagree that at that time the ADF morale had utterly collapsed, I had family serving in the Army and Air Force at that time and from what they've said, although many personnel felt frustrated and disillusioned, they were still prepared to serve in the military. In fact, some of them believed our next war would be with Indonesia and were pissed off that the Australian government was so conciliatory towards the Indons.

Originally Posted by Targan

Also, East Timor was a Portuguese holding and West Irian was formerly a Dutch holding. Paint it however you like, but PNG was a former Australian territory. In RL right now, if Indonesia made a land grab for PNG, there would be solid public support for the ADF to take action against the Indonesian military. Yes my view on these matters is coloured by my disdain towards the Indonesian government and military's past and most certainly present atrocities towards its ethnic minorities. I tell you what, if Indonesia invaded PNG and the Australian government didn't send in the ADF, I would donate my own money towards funding an anti-Indonesian insurgency.

I agree, there would be a lot of public support for the ADF, but that doesn't mean the government would authorise any action. I also agree with your views on the Indonesian government, so much so that despite my dislike of its leftist agenda, I was giving money to FRETILIN - something that I was warned would destroy my chances for any sort of career in the government or ADF should I get found out.
Australia was giving serious consideration to conflict with Indonesia should Indonesia attack PNG (this was in the 1980s) but it was believed that we could lose our entire army and a good portion of our air and naval forces in such a conflict and thus have no chance of stopping the Indons. It was considered that we would lose any such fight without outside assistance and this mindset still colours Australian government thinking.
Fact is, with such a disparity of forces (in Indonesia's favour) and with $15 billion dollars worth of trade between the two countries, the Australian government is going to take a lot of pushing before it pushes back and it would be asking for substantial support from it's "big" friends in North America and Europe.

Originally Posted by Targan

Raellus, if you want a realistic trigger for Australia to go to war against Indonesia, in my opinion it would be the indigenous insurgency of West Papua ramping up their activities against the Indonesian police and military, perhaps due to an influx of funds and military equipment (from whatever source/s). It would really piss the Indonesians off if they thought the insurgents were launching raids from across the border with PNG, and if they demanded that the PNG government take action and they refused or dragged their feet, I think it would be realistic for the Indonesian military to commence cross-border operations.

I honestly do not think this would be enough. The West Irian freedom fighters have been operating from bases across the border in PNG for decades and, again for decades, the Indons have been violating PNG territorial sovereignty to attack these camps.
I believe Australia would have to be backed into a corner before our government would let us fight back. I believe it would take something more along the lines of Indonesia threatening mainland Australia before the government would authorise military action. Something like sinking a ship in an Australian port to prevent ship movement and therefore preventing export sales as a way to force the Aust Govt to concede to Indon demands.
However I don't think the Indons are likely to do such a thing unless they were in the throes of desperation (say from massive resource shortages be that food, water, fuel, minerals, whatever).

Originally Posted by Targan

I can also see the Indonesians being even bolder than usual if they thought that the ADF had its hands full elsewhere (say, supporting military operations in Korea).

I don't disagree with this either and I think massive overpopulation causing severe shortages could push Indonesia into a "lebensraum" policy and hey, "Australia only has an Army of 40,000 and we Indonesians have one about 6 times that size and those devil-whiteman, capitalist-running dog imperialists have so much land with such a small population but they don't share it and Australia really should belong to an Asian country..." i.e. think something along the lines of Argentina's junta reasoning for invade the Falklands.