I've given the Middle East a little thought and these are my first impressions.
Looking at a thematic map of the region displaying the dominant sect in each country, the two major players are Shiite power Iran and Sunni power Saudi Arabia. Largely Shiite Iraq- under oppressive Sunni rule during the Saddam era- stands between them. From what I've heard and read in recent weeks, Iraq, already, barely stable politically and security wise, is looking shakier every day. Perhaps a failed state in Iraq becomes the battleground in a military struggle for regional dominance between the Iranians and the Saudis.
Then there's Syria. A lot depends on how the civil war there pans out. Does Assad come out on top or will his regime be toppled? If the former, in what shape will the Syrian military be in 10 years? Russia clearly wants to maintain influence there. I can see generous military aid packages headed Syria's way as soon as he emerges as the winner. Perhaps, a decade from now, Syria will have regained the military power it had prior to the civil war. Or, does Assad eventually fall? If so, who takes control? From what I've read, there's no clear front-runner among the various insurgent groups, some of which seem quite radical. Does Turkey step in militarily to restore order, or at least secure its frontier?
If Turkey steps in in the south (of Syria), would Israel step in in the south? What kind of response would Israeli intervention receive from Turkey and the other Muslim nations of the region?
I think that it would be kind of surprising in a rather gratifying way, if a major war started in the Middle East without Israel being involved- at least, at the beginning. Israel sits on the sidelines, watching its assorted long-time tormentors and antagonists kicking the crap out of each other, wondering at its own incredible luck, until something happens that drags it into the larger conflict.
I've got a feeling that all of the above could somehow work as a whole, but it needs some adjusting and polishing and I need to get to bed. I'll reread your Middle East thoughts, Rainbow, give it all some more thought, and get back to this tomorrow.
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