I think disease is a very viable campaign hook for world collapse, but the reason I'm suggesting it in this thread is as a direct response to the question of how to reduce the USA's current (and near future) dominance to make a Twilight: 2000 scenario more viable for a 2030 campaign.
By confining most of its effects to North America, you get that effect straight away in a believable form. It would really hurt the US economically and logistically, but the military would probably come out of it quite well compared to the civilian population.
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 "It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
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