[RN7]

Originally Posted by Targan

I think disease is a very viable campaign hook for world collapse, but the reason I'm suggesting it in this thread is as a direct response to the question of how to reduce the USA's current (and near future) dominance to make a Twilight: 2000 scenario more viable for a 2030 campaign.

By confining most of its effects to North America, you get that effect straight away in a believable form. It would really hurt the US economically and logistically, but the military would probably come out of it quite well compared to the civilian population.

Why confine things to North America? Two world wars were fought which barely affected America.

The major reasons for an American collapse would seem to be the following. I may have missed a few if someone wants to add.

1) Military Rivalry: Attack by a foreign rival? America doesn't have a military equal since the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia remains the second most powerful military nation in the world, but it's not up to taking on America anywhere outside of its own territory. China is the number three military power and is the second largest defence spender. It clearly is on a path to establishing some sort of parity with America in the Pacific and it might partly do so by 2030, although that could depend on its future economic situation and if it can bridge the very wide technological and logistical gap that America has over it. However beyond the Pacific (really the Far East) China's military power will never match America's. The only other serious rivals are India, Japan and Europe; India is to poor and Japan and Europe (most of it) are American allies.

2) Internal Revolution: Who? Mexicans, Native Americans, Blacks, Jews, White supremists, Christian or Muslim extremists or closet Southern Confederates? Racists and militants of all types exists but they are a small minority on the fringes of American society or in prison and most people get along with each other in this day and age.

3) Terrorism? Who? See above and maybe add Communists and Abortionists. Terrorists could maybe cause some internal trouble but they are not going to hold the country down for long before their wiped out. Nuclear or cyber terrorism would cause larger problems, but the culprits or country that started it are basically toast once the Americans find out who they are.

4) Disease: It would have to be one hell of a disease or should we say plague to shut down America. Unlike the Ebola virus for example which broke out in a remote part of Africa and was contained, America is hardly a remote part of the world and it could not be contained from spreading globally due to the massive amount of international travel from American airports. It would invariably spread beyond America in the early stages of the outbreak and become a global pandemic.

5) Trade War: If America got into a trade war with another country only the European Union and China are big enough to harm the American economy. Japan had its day in the 1980's and first half of the 1990's, but it is not really big enough anymore to hurt America and is far more dependent on America than vice versa. Europe doesn't really have any major trade issues with America and still remains politically divided. China is the most likely culprit, but any harm that it could do to America is far outweighed by the harm that America could do to China.

6) Energy Embargo: Until maybe five years ago this would have been a serious contender for being most able to bring America to its knees due to America's dependence on oil and gas for energy. But with the shale revolution now radiating out of America, the Americans are now just sitting back with a big cigar and laughing their lungs out at OPEC, the Arabs and the Russians and the laugh will only get louder over the next two decades.

7) Natural disaster: The only two scenarios that I could envisage that would seriously harm the American economy would be if the San Andreas Fault ruptured and California slipped into the Pacific, or if a mile wide sized asteroid impacted on the East coast and took out New York City, Washington DC and other big Eastern cities.