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Originally Posted by Raellus
@RN7: I think we're at an intellectual and philosophical impasse. I wish that I was as optimistic and comfortable as you are regarding our future military capabilities vis-a-vis the Chinese, but I am not. You argue well, using numbers to support your thesis (sources?), but I am still not convinced. Despite my best efforts, I doubt that I can win you over either. Still, I'd like to point out a couple of things that I noticed in your response.
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Sources: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS): The Military Balance 2012
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Originally Posted by Raellus
First, the balance of forces comparisons you cited are based on current/recent information. This project is projecting 20-30 years into the future based on current trends. I concede that it's an imprecise exercise in educated guesswork, but the current trends are quite clear. We're spending less on defense and they (China and Russia) are steadily increasing their defense spending. The American miltary is contracting while the Chinese and Russian militaries are expanding and modernizing. The quality gap is shrinking. They might not be there yet, and we may always retain somewhat of a qualitative technological edge, but the trends suggest otherwise. And quantity can be a quality all its own.
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I cant give to you future military balance figures as they don't exist yet. Even with Obama's cutbacks America is spends at least twice as much as China and Russia combined.
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Originally Posted by Raellus
Besides glossing over current trends, your balance of forces comparisons only look at the U.S. and China. In our posited war, the U.S. would also be fighting the Russians. Add in Russian military strength, U.S. numerical superiority in nearly every non-naval category dissolves..
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China and Russia outnumber the US in all categories of land forces excluding helicopters, but they always have. But they certainly don't in air and naval forces, or in any other category related to the military. Add NATO allied land forces and there is no real superiority and the US and NATO uses better equipment and has better trained forces.
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Originally Posted by Raellus
Well probably have to end up agreeing to disagree and, I could well be wrong anyway. In fact, I hope I am. But history has given us too many examples of the consequences of hubris and I don't want the West to fall into that trap. Besides, if you think our scenario is "impossible", that's cool- we're not trying to push it on anyone.
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A T2030 scenario cant really believably happen until America is immobilised in some way. Invading America today is impossible, if its embroiled in a major crisis then its defences will be down and it wont be able to intervene internationally, at least not at the same level it can now.