Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
2027
b) North Korea launches an invasion of South Korea. Various nations, most notably the United States, send military forces to assist South Korea under the auspices of the United Nations
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I have difficulty seeing how the North could be successful in penetrating more than 40km from the border. Their equipment is 70s era and the South keeps modernizing. Unless there is obvious Chinese support from the beginning (and perhaps in equipment upgrades during the decade before) I see an "invasion" as being a non starter.
I am interested in seeing if anyone has ideas on how and why China would do this when generally they consider the DPRK leadership to be about as useful as a rabid dog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
2027
d) The Russians make their move into the Baltics, calculating that with the US committed in two different (but linked) theatres in the Pacific and the European members of NATO in disarray following the expulsion of some members from the European Union, NATO will not go to War to defend the Baltics.
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The Baltics are full NATO members (for over 20 years in this history) who are victims of Russian aggression. Nato falling apart when Germany attacks makes sense in the original timeline, but this scenario seems very off from what I would expect given this is exactly why NATO was created.
I think you have to have a major NATO reorganization (such as France's actions in 1966) or even dissolution for the Russians to expect zero response to such an invasion.
Maybe there is a requirement that members put a certain percentage of their GDP to defense in order to stay in NATO and this leads to many countries (including the baltics) deciding to leave.