How I see T2K in 2030.
Europe: The Cold War is long dead and the only influence Russia has in Eastern Europe is in Serbia and what it still deludes itself it still has outside the old Soviet borders. Nationalism still exists but it's at a less lethal level in the big Western European countries than it was up until the Second World War. America still has a lot of influence in Europe despite the cutbacks to US forces in Europe and the best efforts of the French, and the US still has a lot of support in Germany and other Pro-NATO countries and has a very close military relationship with Britain. I'd find it hard to believe that a large war would break out in Europe. Even if Russia annexes the Ukraine and Baltic's NATO action would be defensive and it would avoid taking offensive action against Russia. But NATO could still spit as it did in T2K over this or other issues and France would like to go it alone or in leadership of other countries.
The Middle East: The Soviet influence has long gone and was not replaced by any significant Russian influence, except for toothless support for the bogie regimes in Iran, Iraq and Syria. However the Middle East still remains a fertile ground for conflict and there could be so much of it. The Arabs/Muslims still hate the Israelis/Jews and vice-versa. The Sunni-Shia Muslim fault line; Shia Iran, Syria (elite) and Iraqi minority and the Sunni majority in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states. The still conscious nationalist rivalry between the Arabs, Iranian Persians and Ottoman Turks. The Arab and Muslim resentment and inferiority complex with the West and Christians. The problem of the Kurds and other ethnic groups without a homeland. Afghanistan is still a mess and could draw in America, Russia and China. Muslim extremists and terrorists (a favourite pantomime villain) still exist and will continue to cause trouble. Pakistan borders Iran and its rivalry with Hindu India could lead to one of the biggest conflagration of them all.
The Far East: Any conflict has to involve China as it's the biggest power in Asia and has so many disputes with other countries: Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, anti-Chinese Indonesia and Malaysia, even India and Russia. America would certainly be drawn in as it has alliances or assumed ones with so many Asian countries and military bases all across the Pacific. The Korean Peninsula is certainly an area that could lead to a big war, but more likely as part of a wider war.
The biggest problem I have is the issue of how to destabilise America although it's not really that big of a problem. Limited nuclear strikes could certainly happen if America gets into a war with China and Russia, although I think America could do a lot more harm to China and Russia than they could do to America. Chinese and Russian forces landing in America is too farfetched outside of maybe Alaska, even more so if the war goes nuclear. The Mexicans on the other hand would need to really beef up their military to have a snow ball's chance in crossing into the American southwest and holding it for long. The problem is Mexico which is not really as poor as often depicted and is the second most populous country in Latin America and the biggest Spanish speaking one, has never shown any interest in acquiring much in the way of offensive military hardware. Their very defensive and Para-military orientated, and remind me very much of Ireland's relative military capabilities in comparison to Britain. Involving Cuba as in T2K might seem an option, but in 2030 Fidel Castro will be 104 years old (God bless him) and will the Cubans want to remain an isolated economic basket case for ever with America dangling a vast amount of dollars and investment just 90 miles away?
|