Been following it since the first hour of the story.
98+% sure it was the separatists. The tweet claiming they had shot down the AN-26 (which they later removed) and the intercepted radio/cell communication where the person on the ground pretty much said "It was 100% a civie" and "There are seats everywhere" all hit the web too quickly to be non planned fakes.
The other 2-% being that it was a planned action to shame the separatists.
The fact that the black boxes were collected and sent to Moscow also does not bode well for the truth coming out of that data source.
This is not what Putin wanted, and when he is disappointed bad things can happen.
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