I'm struggling with a very similar scenario in my T2030 work vis-à-vis China. As a kid, I couldn't have imagined the U.S. pulling such a dick move as a first strike but now, as a much better informed adult, I have to admit that the possibility is, given the circumstances, actually somewhat plausible.
I've long banged the drum for the principle that the T2K universe is actually more of a multiverse. So, if you, as the GM/world builder, prefer your scenario to the original, go with it. If my opinion counts for anything, as I mentioned above, I think your scenario has merit.
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