Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
My point is that the Russians aren't pushovers. 10-years ago, probably. Today, not really. 10 years from now, if these defense spending trends continue, even less so. I don't want the West to make the mistake of underestimating ta potential adversary.
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I agree in general but Russia has short and long term issues which will probably break those trends.
- The aggressive posture seems to be the result of a cult of personality. If Putin is removed from the equation (perhaps his shirt allergy flairs up
) I believe Russia would not maintain its current stance.
- Demographic issues related to the age of the populace I have discussed before.
- Their economy is a one trick pony (energy) and crude futures are down 6% this week and 29% annually. Also the energy strangle hold on Europe is weakening with the first LNG transports from the US arriving in Lithuania last month.
A populace will accept a reduction of freedoms (as Putin has done) if there is a dynamic economy. The crash of the Ruble (down over 30% since the beginning of the year) should put a bit of a damper on Putin's tightening control and his military buildup which is riddled with graft and corruption.
I am not saying I don't think the USA is in bad shape compared to a decade ago, but fundamentally I think China is positioned better to be our primary opposition over Russia.