For me this argument is falling into the fact that I bought the USSR was in parity with NATO capability and sustainability and "Fool me once, shame on the USSR, fool me twice shame on me". Back in the 80s I ignored chronic systemic issues with their military and economy (by reading articles that sounded very much like the ones I see now).
I think if you want Russia to be the big baddie in 2030, you need to focus on how their economy is able expand now not their military IMO. The Russian economy is not doing well. I read an article earlier this week where Apple Corp's valuation was 33% greater than the ENTIRE Russian stock market.
Just spit-balling but maybe throw something beyond oil and gas into the equation. Maybe they master fusion or superconductors which is dependent on some rare element they have a near monopoly on.
If I were to play T2k now I would explain the USSR's survival by having them produce as much oil as they do now, plus finding and exploiting the gold and mineral reserves which were featured in Clancy's Bear and the Dragon. I think you need to do something similar. My planned point of historical divergence went back as early as 1973 IIRC, with the Soviet expanding their oil exploration in response to the oil crisis.
This can certainly be frustrating when writing "future" history as you have to make the point of divergence earlier to allow the economy to change dramatically in time before the military build up, and in a year it might already be wrong.
Of course as far as RPGs go most players did not know the rich and well thought out history of DnD's Greyhawk realm, and they still enjoyed it. You don't have to make everything logical or perfectly connected to real world in order to make an interesting game world. Because of this please only take my suggestions if they help you make what you want.