There is not one but three periods of 'panic' evacuations in the time line I think. The first occurs in the winter of '96 when the war starts in Europe, acutally intensifies as the US enters the fray and engages Soviet forces for the first time. IMO there would be 'volunteer' evacuations from large 'target' cities. Perhaps 20% of the urban population would head for rural areas. There would be runs on the groceries and fuel at this time, causing shortages and violence to one degree or another. It would take about two months for the panic to really subside. Over that time I would see about 5-10% of the evacutees remaining in the rural areas, possibly because of ties to the area (children of farmers, cousins, etc).
The second and more serious IMO 'panic' occures in July when the nuclear genie is released in Euirope. With the summer warm, verse cold of winter, there would be the same run on food, fuel, and supplies seen in the winter, though during this time, many people would, if possible, prepared for the future by laying in some food, etc. The swarm of locust into the country would overwhelm the infastructure, and yes there would be problems between the urbanite and rural folks as towns filled up. One significant problem at this time is the lack of the national guard units to help the LEO, as they are deployed or being deployed. State guard units would not be able to handle the problem. As for the masses in the country rioting, there would be some, but at this time there is food available. Innercities I could see going up in flames with looting and riots however over frustrations of the government not evacuating them and taking care of them like they feel they deserve. It would drive more people to flee to the country, and increase tensions. It would probably be four months before those that chose to go back to the cities all returned. I project perhaps 50% of the urbanites leave the city and perhaps 30% of the refugees remain in the rural communities or camps as the case may be. There will be a major effort to get people back to work as there is a war on and the war-industry is in the city, not the country.
During both these evacuations vehicles are availabe for the relocations though fuel would be a problem in spots.
The next big exodus would be TDM. Those cities not hit on the first strike would surely empty into the rural areas again, probably to the same community they did once or twice before. Those without connections in place would not fare as well as the 'established' faces, and that even depends on how they acted when they were there before. It is now the start of winter. It is cold and snow in the northern tier. As the ripple strikes occur, and if there is a HEMP strike, those folks will be on foot, no food, in the cold.
Sympathy will help some, but many will perish.
As for facing down MASSIVE HORDES OF STARVING? Organization is required to mount an attack. There are children that parents are concerned for. There are wifes men are concerned for. There are sheeple that have resisted being violent. Yes starvation and survival insitinct will affect their thinking, but I don't see the 1000's as a group, rather groups of 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 or perhaps 100. Few of those groups will be violent initally, thinking that people, or the government, will help them. By the time they find there is no help forthcoming, they will be too weak, cold, and sick to really do much.
And the defense is in question too. How well is the leadership and organization? I see militas forming around the county sheriff's office in many/most rural counties. The sheriff is an elected official. He/she is THE word of the law in the county. They can deputize the whold population should they choose to and cover any questions about people facing armed vigilantees keeping the starving out.
I'm still working on this train of thought, but that's how I initally perceive it.
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