[Webstral]

I agree that there are things Russia could do in a hurry. The question would be what it would take to stay there. If Putin could pull off a major diplomatic coup in the wake of an invasion of one or more Baltic Republics, he might be able to get the US to agree to let him keep what he took. This doesn't seem likely, though. The chicken hawks in the US are looking for an excuse to dust off the good stuff that seldom got used in OIF or OEF. Escalation would be virtually unavoidable, given the tiny nature of the Baltic Republics versus the operational range of the aircraft that would be involved. The logic of counter-air pretty quickly would involve combat in the airspace of nations around the Baltics, followed by attacks on air bases, SAM, and ground-based radar in neighboring countries. While one might argue that escalation might be managed by a sort of firewall between aircraft penetrating non-Baltic airspace in prosecution of operations focused on the Baltics and ground forces crossing land borders, the inevitable efforts of USAF SO rescuing pilots would blur the line between rescue and commando operations, which would blur the line further regarding heliborne raids, which might finally lead to cross-border actions by ground forces. Though I'm not Putin, I have a hard time imagining what he thinks he could get out of occupying one or more Baltic Republics compared to the firestorm that could erupt in response.