Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
I have a scenario which I'm almost ready to share here that I think makes a compelling case that Russia could take and hold at least one of the Baltic States (probably Estonia), even with a conventional military response from NATO.
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Unless a US Navy carrier battle group was sailing around the Gulf of Riga and a fully mobilised NATO corps and air group was positioned in Poland the Baltics wouldn't have a hope in resisting a Russian invasion. They have a no air force other than some light transport planes, 13 Mi-8/17 helicopters and some civil aircraft. Their navy has 4 patrol vessels and 15 minesweepers, and they have an army of 14,000 troops with 3 T-55 tanks, 266 APC and 142 towed artillery pieces and 50,000 reserves and para-military.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
If NATO shows any cracks, it might serve, in Putin's mind, to mitigate his lack of strong allies. Regardless, he's working to build economic and military alliances with sympathetic or easily bullied nations (see the recent "anti-terrorist" join maneuvers with Serbia and the [economic] Eurasian Union).
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Since Russia annexed the Crimea a good way to rub Putin's nose in it might be for Germany and NATO to threaten to annex the Kaliningad enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. It used to be part of German East Prussia until 1945, although it would also make the Poles very nervous!