[Webstral]

There's a certain parallel between events in Eastern Europe and the events leading up to Hitler's invasion of Poland. However, the parallel breaks down a bit once one compares a German invasion of Poland with a Russian invasion of, say, Estonia. While Great Britain and France guaranteed Poland's security, the means to do so was not in place. It was genuine bluff. The Brits and French had no means to intervene in Poland. They would have had to invade Germany. The leadership in these countries had no stomach for a fight. Conservative Americans, on the other hand, would love to be let off the leash. Since Estonia is now a NATO member, an attack on Estonia would be an attack on every member of the alliance. It wouldn't be a question just of Russian tanks versus American tanks but of Russian tanks versus American, British, German, Dutch, Belgian, and possibly even French tanks. (Mon Dieu!) There wouldn't have to be a debate. Treaty obligations would simply kick in.

Now if the question becomes whether or not the various members of NATO would balk at honoring their treaty commitments... There's a horse of a different color. I honestly have no idea how that one would play out without an hypothesis that was two parts prejudice and three parts guesswork. I suspect there would be some pacifist sentiment in every NATO country, along with some hawkish sentiment. The balance would vary from country to country. Without having a compelling reason to think otherwise, though, I have to believe that member nations of NATO would honor their commitment under the Treaty or suffer real blowback from the other members. The United States would have to honor the terms of NATO or lose all credibility in every alliance. Once the US was on board, the UK would follow suit if not march in time with the US. After that, every other member would have to consult their consciences and self interest, bearing in mind that a spiteful Washington might consider all existing arrangements of every sort with NATO members refusing to honor their obligations up for renegotiation. If Germany and France both decided to sit out, then others might follow. If either pitched in, the other would feel obliged to follow suit.