You've hit the nail on the head, Web. I too think the overwhelming invasion scenario is less risky for Russia. Attempting an Eastern Ukraine-style destabilization and intimidation campaign and subsidized insurgency in Latvia and/or Estonia risks NATO sending advisors and counter-insurgency forces in response. This immediately makes a military coup-de-main a much riskier proposition because NATO will have more cause to respond with matching force if its own troops are caught in the subsequent Russian attack. Putin's either going to have to be content to play the long game, or go for the jugular. If I were him, I'd go with the latter for the reasons you outlined.
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Originally Posted by Webstral
At the risk of showing prejudice, I feel obliged to say that the Russians really can be brutes. The argument will be put forward that slapping Estonia to the ground and taking her purse will send the right message to the effete Westerners, the argument will go. They didn’t do anything of substance in the Ukraine. They won’t get involved in Estonia. The US may piss and moan about it, but they are already bogged down with other crises; and in any event, American public opinion won’t stand for a confrontation with Russia on top of ISIL, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. I doubt Putin is foolish enough to put stock in this argument, but one never knows.
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I doubt it too, but this is the premise of our T2030 game world. The following may not be probable, but I firmly believe that it is realistic and plausible. Here's how it goes...
The U.S. is preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere in the world. Europe is struggling with dissatisfaction with the EU, and the costs of supporting anti-terror operations in the Middle East and Africa. NATO is riven by internecine bickering and acrimony. NATO has shown Russia again and again that aggression and territorial expansion won't be punished militarily. There may not be a will to do so and, even if there was, military commitments elsewhere will interfere with the way. In this atmosphere, Russia miscalculates, leaps, is met with a unexpectedly pugnacious NATO response, and WWIII in Europe is under way.
My original scenario envisioned a preliminary destabilization/intimidation phase prior to outright invasion of Estonia, but I edited that out several weeks ago because such a campaign would likely provoke a NATO military response of some kind. ATM, I really only see NATO responding strongly if the stakes aren't too high.
I'm really quite baffled as to why measures to station a NATO heavy brigade in one or more of the Baltic States. Too much expense, too much risk, not enough upside is my guess. Putin's got to be wondering the same thing, and likely drawing similar conclusions.