[jester]

You've got the bottle necks of shipping.

The American Merchant Marine and the civilian ships that support the military for such operations have been chronically undermanned. About 8 years ago it came out that in order to pass their inspections they would fly personnel from the East Coast to the West Coast so they could pass. And that is at a moderate to low operational tempo, not one of full mobilization.

So, where do we get the personnel and now the vessels for this increased shipping? As you said, civilian assets may work for personnel and even light vehicles. But your heavy lift to move your armor I doubt will be able to be shipped on the standard car carrier. So, armored units may be a bit on the light side or take longer to form.

Sadly, pulling civilian or retired will give you a lag of skill set until they get up to par as well.

Bringing vessels out of mothballs. Depending on its level of mothball status could mean at the least several months in a shipyard to almost rebuilding the vessel. Sadly in a time of limited drydock and shipyard space since we've closed to many we no longer have those assets of skilled people. (Same for our aviation capacity)

Rail capacity....again, the bottleneck of the railheads. I know how long it takes to load a mech brigade on railcars. A division, a lot longer. The space inside the railhead and the cars available and where they are stored is an issue while the train is being assembled. Then the nightmare of keeping those trains moving cross country....even though military traffic always has right of way. We hit the port facilities. The rail head for off loading.

In ports, we have civilians and their assets working with military at off loading. 2 new crews working together who have not done so before. And again SPACE. How many vehicles and conex boxes belonging to a Brigade or a Division? You will need to clear out vast areas of your ports to make room for this equipment as well as for a security aspect. I can see the ports being slightly more organized than a Chinese fire drill.

Next, convoy, do we have the assets for that in theater and to conduct other operations? And do we have the skills? I recall about 2 years ago, an unknown submarine managed to make it well within a carrier battlegroup....they think the submarine was Chinese. It brought a big question about how our antisubmarine capability has degraded. And it must be asked, not just using Cold War era equipment, but troops who just don't have the skillset and experience.

And lastly, Russia is building up its submarine force again. I can not help but think they are well aware, the easiest way to fight is to keep them from landing. If you can keep your foe from even setting foot on land you've won! With that mindset, I could think they would put effort in keeping forces from crossing the Atlantic. Granted, that goes on the theory that there is not a lot of political bluff that allows for a troop buildup before anything actualy happens.

Another issue, bluff. Or good ol Cold War Brinkmanship. Push it to the limit and see how far you can go. Which in my view is what ol Vlad is doing. The gamble, is a small former block country that has limited ties or common history with Western Europe worth Nato going off? Come on, its only Estonia or Latvia...both are smaller than Los Angeles, they're not worth it. The test was Georgia, and then Ukraine neither Nato members true but a good test of the Wests resolve. Now, if both had completed their admission to Nato, would things have been different?