I think its more a case of them being defeated in Africa by the South Africans and their allies - most likely because their supply lines got cut by the war - or something like I had in my East African book where the South Africans got nuked by the Soviets (refineries I mean) and the South Africans got payback - and took out a lot of the Cuban air support and forces in the meantime
remember with the V1 timeline apartheid never falls - and that means that the South Africans still have their nukes when the war starts
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