I cannot fault your stats. They are pretty accurate from what I know. I agree the real damage would occur in the aftermath. Events like Katrina have proven that.
I guess my big issue is with the idea of trucking in a nuke to any major city. Since 9/11, the Department of Homeland Security has significantly upgraded its electronic sensor grid. The majority of these upgrades were done on major transportation routes and involved radiation detectors. I pass at least 3 layers of these driving into Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh on any major route. You don't even have to stop. They are tall, slim panels that can detect radiation as you pass them at highway speed. They are very common at scales and weigh stations. Getting through the border with a large radiation signature would be hard enough. driving from the border to any major city without encountering an electronic checkpoint would be a formidable task. This could be an interesting scenario though. Intercept the nuke before the Jihadists can detonate it after a weigh station notifies you about it. Call it "H***fire on wheels."
I think the planners would use a different approach. They could smuggle the weapons in through the desert from Mexico. They would then put the device on a small plane and fly it to the city. The pilot may not even know what he's carrying (thinking it heroine or cocaine). They would then airburst the weapon remotely, causing maximum damage. There would still be some issues. I saw an ADAM, Atomic Demolition, Man Portable (the so called "backpack" nuke) once in training. It was housed in a footlocker sized case and weighed north of 400lbs (like our old 6" nukes). Hardly a "backpack" nuke. A 20KT device smuggled in through Mexico would have to go by horse or be carried by like four to six people. The US may still detect it on the move. The Drug Cartels may not want to help. The Russians would be killing lots of the Cartel's best customers. Still this would be safer and faster than a "ground assault."
The second approach would involve commercial shipping or aviation hauling a larger device that would be detonated just before landing/docking. The planes or ships would have to originate from China, Russia, or Iran (or a client state) to avoid the various checks that most Western airports/seaports now have. Detection would be almost certain if the vessel or craft lingered in another port before hitting the target. Iran (or North Korea) would be the most likely user of this attack. Once again, the occupants of the aircraft/vessel may not even be aware of the device. This attack is so evil that it gives me shudders just bringing it up.
However the nukes end up being delivered; It will be very ugly.
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