I was always dubious that the historical Mexican Army would have been in any shape to conduct offensive operations against even a modest residual force in the US. You would have had a considerable number of troops (and armor) still in the CONUS, with much of it out in the field doing relief. While many would have been state guard troops, police and civilians, there would have still been considerable numbers of National Guard troops present, combat veterans who for one reason or another had been sent home (e.g. wounded, 40th Div, etc). There were also divisions, according to cannon, fully trained but awaiting deployment (e.g., 49th Armored).
I drafted some notes based on a hypothetical buildup by Mexico. I think some such buildup would have been necessary for a successful invasion.
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