[Webstral]

We had a conversation along these lines some time ago. I’ll try to summarize what was discussed briefly (not my strong suit, as many of you know).


I think there was general agreement that the Mexican Army was not in a very good position to project power into the United States in 1998 for a variety of reasons if nothing was done to improve the state of the Mexican Army between August 1995 and November 1997. For the moment, I’ll skip over training and logistics and go to the AFV park.


I have long maintained that the PRC would have responded to the invasion by the Soviet Union by going shopping. Chinese indebtedness would have given China some leverage over Western actions, since the fall of the regime in Beijing would have unknown consequences for payment on Western loans for China. In addition to ramping up their own production, the Chinese would have bought everything that wasn’t nailed down. I believe equipment would have been transferred from the interior and every front that wasn’t fighting the Soviets with the intent of replacing that equipment with whatever junk could be acquired from anyplace else at a low cost.


This situation opens up a door for the Mexican Army to make some changes. They have an opportunity to offload some of their older fighting vehicles for cash, although not very much cash. At the same time, they would have the opportunity to sell hardware to China. I have posited that the Mexican arms industry obtains the rights to manufacture VAB, Lynxes, AMX-30, and a few other French systems under license specifically for the Chinese market. The Mexican Army thus sheds a fair few of its older systems with the intent of replacing them incrementally as orders for China roll off the assembly lines. As a result, by November 1997 the Mexican Army has more modern equipment than ever and has a more uniform TOE than ever.


The heating up of the nuclear exchange means that hardware intended for shipment to China can be absorbed by the Mexican Army. Consequently, there are enough AMX-30 available for Second, Third, and Fourth Mexican Armies each to get a package.