Quote:
Originally Posted by Webstral
A factor I didn’t think of until just now is moisture. 1997-1998 is [was] an El Nino winter. Recently, I’ve been told that El Nino affects SoCal more than the SF Bay Area. Thanksgiving is well into the rainy season. I’d have to look at what actually happened that season in terms of rainfall in Los Angeles, but very wet ground will inhibit the spread of fires. How much I can’t say. Still, I’d be willing revise my estimate of the level of destruction downward based on an exceptional rainy season, other factors aside.
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I know from bitter experience here in Australia that a wetter than normal year inhibits fires while the rain is around, but the following dry season is invariably MUCH worse for fires because of the explosion in vegetation growth due to all that moisture.
So even if the fires resulting from the destruction of the refineries aren't as bad due to wetter ground, the following year when there's not much in the way of organized firefighting crews around anymore, fires that start by other means are going to run completely out of control, with that much more dry vegetation to feed them.